Hello,

I guess everybody has noticed how the australian dollars is currently appreciated vs all other currencies in the world, and especialyl agains the £.

The £/AUD peaked on the 19 June at 2.68 and now as fallen to 2.40 so far this year, this is a 10.5% drop in just 6 months from its peak.

We are now back to this level of 1 year ago.

It is very difficult to predict if this trend will continue and where the AUD dollar will move next year.

I would like to start a discussion to get people's view on where the £/AUD will be by (let's say June 2005)

My take is that as the US dollar is weak and the US gov like it this way and the Australian is so strong at the moment, I do not foresee a swing of the £ back up in the next 6 months.

This has big consequences for all of us wanting to move to Australia next year, we are potentially moving into a period (next 6 months- maybe 1 year) where the AUD will remain strong at 2.40 (and maybe even lower).

So in effect, if one would have transferred £200K in June 2004, it would have got AUD 530, but would potentially get AUD 480 (at 2.4) in June 05, this is $ 50,000 difference !!!!!!

Based on Alan note, if we move next year (let's May 05) and the exchange rate if 2.40... then drops to 2.2 in Aug 05 when you actually do your transer, you potentially get a tax refund !!

jf.

I hear what your saying. This is a big deal if you're investing everything you have into your new life. As Quality of life is one of the main aims then where you live (or how much debt you have to finance) could affect that goal. On the other hand if 50k AUD is a migration breaker.... maybe an individuals reasons for moving aren't strong enough. Anybody have an opinion?

Hi there,

Looking at the trend of the exchange over the last few years (I was bored one day), it seems to go through a similar cycle each year, i.e. falling through the second half of the year and then rising again in the first half, reaching a peak around May/June of each year. I'm hoping that will happen again this year, as we will be looking to transfer our money out around that time.

I do agree with Mr Anderson however, in that $50k shouldn't be enough to make the decision on whether to go or not. Although quality of life in financial terms is important to us, so is the quality of life in terms of the general lifestyle, and having $50k less would certainly not be a breaker. Although we would obviously have a larger mortgage than we first thought, it would still be a relatively smaller mortgage than the one we hold here.

Regards, Sarah

Hi jf

With regard to your last comment, I thought i read a post from Alan that said the tax on money transfer has now changed and whilst you are no longer penalised for an increase in the exchange rate in your favour, after taking up residency, providing the money is in an existing bank account that has been opened for more than 3 years, you could also not claim tax relief if the opposite was true.

Lesley

I agree absolutely with the commemt that if $50k were the deciding factor for a new life based on $200k transfer, forget it!! Obviously money is the issue then if that were the case, and not the quality of life, I do appreciate money has a bearing on migration, but if you can afford to finance the whole application process I'm sure $50k AUD wouldn't hold you back if your intentions were sincere enough. (Personal Opinion)

marty.d

Thanks for your comments,

I think that you misread my post.. I will go to Australia no matter what exchange rate it will be (indeed $50K is not a lot in grand scheme of things)

I just asked people advice how they foresee exchange rate to fluctuate next year !that's all

The key issue is the timing of when you convert your £ to $, back in 2001 you would have exchangd at 2.90, in July 04 at 2.65 now at 2.40 ? will the $ rebound or not ?

jf,

Hi jf,

I think you made a very interesting point, as on a Retirement visa it does matter at great deal this $50,000 thats the make or break for a pensioner. Lets all hope that the rate remains on the up and eveyone going to Oz will benefit.
$2.42 todays rate and we are coming into Aus Autum so it should very well be going up from our end.
Rita & Andrew